Сергій Кабуд ( Кий ) (xyu) wrote,
Сергій Кабуд ( Кий )


(just received this from a friend in Canada, physicist )

Dear American and Canadian friends,

    I dare to bother you with the letter on my vision of the current political situation in the world, because many people here are asking me questions on the Russian-Georgian conflict (RGC), and I feel that people are confused in that stream of information and disinformation that are given to us by media, when even New York Times publishes faked photos about "cruel Georgians", only CNN was more or less good. Also, observation of the RGC helped me to find answers for many questions on the 9/11 attack. An attempt to predict Russian behavior in the future points out a very strong and close threat to both of your countries, USA and Canada, and I feel it is my duty to deliver a warning message at least to those of you who were so nice with me. Believe me, I wish I was wrong, but I am afraid the things are really serious, and I would like to ask you to be patient with me and at least to browse through this letter to the very end. If after that you don't feel
 interested, please, forgive me disturbing you. For those, who are interested, at the end of the letter I will suggest some additional reading, which could be helpful in understanding the raised issues.
1. About RGC
    When USSR was collapsing in 1991, on its territory many little ethnical conflicts have appeared. Most of them are resolved by now, however, not in Georgia, which has two such conflicts. The conflict in South Osetia is the strangest one. Population of South Osetia is only 30000 people, only half of which are Osetins. During all these years Russian "peace" troops were present there. Yet many Osetins were given Russian passports - very strange thing to do if Russian troops were there indeed to resolve the conflict. During last two months from S.Osetia was setup lots of anti-Georgian provocations, and number of Russian troops in S.Osetia was increasing, reaching 10000 men. Looks like Russia was indeed preparing invasion into Georgia, which made Georgian president Saakashvili to setup a preventive action. Saakashvili is a young man with good education (MsD. from Columbia U, PhD form G.Washinton U), and I truly believe that he had no choice other than to
 strike first. The whole Georgian army is only 2500 well trained man and around 32 000 totall personal, most of which were recruited only 2-3 months ago. How could they cause any serious resistance to advance of 10000 well-skilled soldiers? If he allowed the Russian army to do the first strike - Russian tanks would have been in Tbilisi (Georgian capital) within 2-3 hours and the whole country would go under Russian control. By doing the first strike, he messed up all plans of Russians, which gave him some extra time necessary to attract international attention. A very strong reaction of many countries and most importantly of the USA, which offered Georgians an immediate humanitarian aid delivered by military ships and aircrafts, helped Georgia to survive. Russians are not ready so far for a direct conflict with USA, so they agreed to sign a peace agreement.
    I must say that I never liked G.W.Bush and cannot recall any of his decisions that I would support. However, this time his decision was completely right, and for the first time I agree with Bush.
    Thinking on the reasons for this conflict cleared up my mind on many others political issues, including 9/11. By the way, pay attention to the date of the beginning of the RGC: 8/8/8 and compare with 9/11. Doesn't it look like a signature? Well, perhaps it is just a coincidence.
    Ops! Just now news came that Russians broke up the peace agreement. Let's see what happens next. Most likely, they will divide Georgia onto two parts. However, if there are totally crazy, they might attempt to continue advance of their troops and get stuck in the conflict for many years.

2. Why Georgia?
    I believe, the biggest "fault" of Georgia was that they dared to build a pipeline to transport Caspian oil to the West, which ruins the Russian monopoly of oil supply to Europe. Another Georgian "problem" is that they decided to build democracy and want to join NATO and European Union. Those who run Kremlin (kremlins) would prefer all post-soviet countries to have political regimes similar to the Russian one - such regimes are easier to control.

3.  What do ordinary Russians want?
    After the USSR collapsed many Russians feel extremely depressed and upset. They used to live in big and strong superpower country, and they feel humiliated by the West, which not only allowed the USSR to disintegrate, but also treats other post-soviet countries better than it treats Russia. They think, it was the West, who broke the USSR and they want Russia to revenge over the West. The kremlins use this desire of people to achieve they own political goals

4. What do the kremlins want?
    Most of the governments in the world see they main task in political and economical successes of their countries. However, kremlins are different. They goal is to control over the world and Russia for them is not more than a very useful tool. In order to understand kremlins, one should recall they history. Before 1917 they were nothing, but just a gang which was robbing banks. Their leader, Lenin, realized that Marxism could be very useful, so they were robbing banks in the name of the communist revolution. Lenin had huge ambitions, so he developed a "scientific theory" based on Marxist demagogy, which allowed him to seize power in the Russian Empire. He was exceptionally smart guy, so he knew that other countries will not like what he did, so he was teaching his fellows that communists either win over the whole world or they will be exterminated, like cockroaches. He was speaking and writing explicitly in many of his works that Russia for him
 is nothing else, but a tool to overthrow the world. Thus, he directed everybody in his gang towards building a world communist empire, and to accomplish this goal, the best engineers and scientists were working on military projects, huge amounts of various weapons was produced, while the rest of the economy was gradually falling down till the full collapse in 1991 followed by demoralization of people. It is very hard to fight for control over the world having behind a country of hungry and demoralized people. So, Kremlins allowed hard to control territories to "go away" and permitted some private initiative to rise up economy. Of course, governments of the new countries as well as private businesses had to remain under kremlins control. Huge growth of oil prices was very helpful for kremlins. Despite Russian economy is still weak, the kremlins accumulated lot of money so they decided it the right time to continue their job towards the world control.
 Just a couple of months ago, Russian President Medvedev in his speech in front of all Russian ambassadors declared that Russia is going towards becoming a superpower again.

5. How do the kremlins plan to achieve they goal?
    While some other country in order to become a superpower would build a strong economy, for kremlins this way is not good at all, because it will never bring them to control the world, so they don't even try to invest oil money into science,  technology,  industry, or agriculture. They know easier way to become a superpower: set up problems here and there in the world, then pretend to resolve them.
    First, they started with their own country, Russia, by setting up a series of explosions of the apartment buildings (1999), which took lives of several hundred people. For this, they used FSB (a new acronym for KGB) agents, which finally were seen by people when they were planting explosives and caught by police! But within a few days those guys were released from the custody, after some high official explained that this way FSB was checking how effectively the police works and the explosives were not real, but only imitation. Nevertheless, explosions after that stopped. Authorities declared that all the explosions were setup by Islamites, of course they did not catch anybody. However, the Russian nation was re-united, and on the next presidential elections it voted for a FSB-KGB colonel Vladimir Putin.
    Putin immediately started to setup provocations here and there around Russia: annexing a Kazakh island in the Caspian Sea, attempt to annex a Ukrainian island in the Black Sea, cutting off gas and oil supply to Europe in the middle of the winter, etc. Now there are fighting with Georgia. Despite very few of the provocations was actually successful, inside the country all of them were presented as big achievements of Russia, so people started to love Putin, and their love was transferred on the new President Medvedev.

6. What are the main obstacles on the way of kremlins?
    Implementation of kremlins plans can be disrupted either by interference of most powerful countries, like European Union, China, and USA, or by sudden drop of oil prices. Let me consider these factors one by one.
    European Union. The kremlins not afraid of EU at all, because EU is totally dependent on the oil and natural gas supply from Russia.
    China. The kremlins believe, they agreed with China. Just a little while ago Putin passed to China several islands on the Amour River. Strange gift, isn't it? I think, he counts either on Chinese neutrality or even on Chinese military help, especially with men, at some critical moment. However, one should remember that China is run by a similar gang as the kremlins, so it is hard to be sure, if China is going to follow orders from the Kremlin. Also, for communists, it is a common practice to sign a treaty, but then not to follow it.
    USA. This is indeed a serious obstacle. The Georgian war (see item 1) demonstrated that USA despite of the war in Iraq remains quite strong and capable to react quickly and decisively. What to do with the US? Try to weaken it by all possible means: e.g. make it fight some other country, setup a new "Islamic terrorist attack", etc. Just a few days ago Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov directly offered a deal to G.W.Bush: we, Russians, take Georgia, and you, Americans, take Iran. Fortunately, Bush did not accept the deal, so the kremlins are likely to try another way. They know how to manipulate various terrorist organizations (see item 7), so it is not hard for them to setup an attack that would seriously damage America, but Americans will not be able to understand what is going on and start a war with some other country, say with Iran or Saudi Arabia. For example, using a biological weapon could be very efficient. I would imagine spraying some
 nasty bacteria above American cities, so many people on the American continent would die. Separation by oceans guarantees that the disease will not spread to Europe, so Kremlins will feel themselves safe sitting in Moscow. The bad side of this scenario is that if America discovers the true source of the attack, it may attack Russia. Since Russian conventional weapons are getting more and more outdated and, therefore, inefficient for fighting America, the kremlins might have to use nuclear ones. If the nuclear war begins, Russia becomes one big target for the USA, but the kremlins won't care about it – they bought comfortable houses and palaces for themselves in the Western Europe, some of which even have private nuclear shelters... I really hate this scenario, but since its probability is more than zero, society has to take it into account.
    The factor of oil prices is very important. Many experts agree that the oil prices now are over pumped and may drop at any moment. When it happens, Russia might have a revolution in the result of which the kremlins will be hanged on the street lights. So the kremlins should hurry up. So, I am afraid the threat is very real.

7. FSB-KGB, terrorist organizations, and 9/11.
    KGB throughout its whole history was using terrorist organizations for its purposes. KGB agents would deliberately search throughout the world for various kinds of unhappy people, who are already acting or willing to act as terrorists. Then, the KGB would offer them all sorts of help: training, weapons, money. They would offer help to pickup a good for the both sides target and to deliver terrorist tools to it. In the past, KGB had a lot of cooperation with many terrorist organizations.
    One of the Al Qaeda leaders, Al Zawahiri is known to visit Russia in 1997. On the American request, the kremlins replied that Al Zawahiri was arrested at the border for attempt to bring little amount of drug, after he served several moths in prison, they let him go. However, a defected to the West former FSB officer Alexandr Litvinenko, who not long ago was poisoned with polonium in London, claims that Al Zawahiri undertook a special training course at a secret FSB base in Dagestan. After that, he was sent to Afghanistan, and joined Al Qaeda as bin Laden's number two. Meanwhile, the FSB officers who had supervised him in Dagestan were promoted and re-assigned to Moscow. Thus, Litvinenko believed in existence some connection between the 9/11 attack and FSB.
    Also, the story with anthrax letters looks very strange to me. As far as I remember, FBI found some man who claimed that he did everything by himself, including growing anthrax in his lab. Knowing the complicated US lab safety regulations I don't believe in the FBI's explanation. The guy most likely had good assistants, who supplied him with money and ingredients, but he did not betray them.

8. Role of the deception.
    Deception is a very important part in the life of kremlins, which they practice from the time of Lenin. They see nothing wrong in breaking treaties and agreements, signing false treaties, pretending of being either weak or strong, assassinating political opponents… They often build their operations, counting that world will never know about FSB involvement. However, about some of the operations world does know by accident. The most famous one was killing of Ukrainian nationalist leader Stepan Bandera in Munich that became known thanks to defection of his assassin, Bohdan Stashynski. KGB participation in Assassination of Stalin's opponent Trotsky in Mexico became known thanks to Pavel Sudoplatov. KGB participation in assassination of Bulgarian dissident Stoyanov became known when they tried to use the same method one more time and failed. The most recent famous case, assassination of Litvinenko with polonium is known to everyone. There were other
 cases that are not so famous and I don't recall them so fast.
    The kremlins run several labs specialized in inventing various ways of killing people, like poisons and assassination tools. They have poisons that cause hart attack and quickly decompose, so they cannot be discovered in future investigations.
    Vladimir Putin, a KGB colonel, who studied deceptive work in the college, introduced lots of knew methods. A couple of years ago in Ukraine we had a case of strange suicide of high-level official Kravchenko, who was found dead in his own garage with 2 bullets in his head. Investigators explored the garage and yard, but did not find any trace of anyone's presence, so they had no option, but to call the case a suicide. Could anyone believe in a suicide with two bullets in the head?
    KGB infiltrate their agents everywhere around the world. To give you the feeling how deeply their agents could be infiltrated, let me say that Condoleezza Rice has a strange fact in her biography. In 1979 she studied in Leningrad, however she is trying to conceal this fact. Why? Another example is Kissinger, who also often behaves strangely, so I am afraid he might be an agent.
    One should know that FSB-KGB is built similarly to mafia. You can enter the organization, but you cannot exit it alive. Despite of this, some KGB officers do defect to the West. Approximately every year or two, there is a loud case of defection. However, defector's life in the West is not nice and quiet. FSB is hunting for the defectors, so the defectors have to live under faked identity, being afraid of everything and everybody for the rest of their lives.
    Just now news came that the kremlins broke up the piece agreement in Georgia (see item 1). So that agreement they used to calm the public opinion and to regroup their military forces, as they often did in the past.

9. Further reading.
    First of all, I would suggest books written by Victor Suvorov, a former Soviet spy, a GRU officer, who defected to the West. GRU is an acronym for military intelligence, which is built on the same principles as FSB. In his books he described in detail organization of work in the Russian secret cervices, His books are written with easy language and can be read like thrillers. The English translations of some of his books are available online, so you can read them. Don't pay attention to Russian ad's, just read the English text.

I also have an audio book "Comrade J" written by Pete Earley based on the story of Oleg Tretiakov, a KGB officer, who was spying in Canada and USA. If anyone is interested just bring me a flash card, so I will copy it for you. Or you can buy the book from amazon.com

About Condoleezza

About Kissinger:

9/11 and FSB:

Russian concepts:
this man, Nyquist, seems understands things really well, so you may want to read more of his articles:

Enough. You must be tired of me by now. Thank you very much for your attention to all of these issues!
  • Post a new comment


    Comments allowed for friends only

    Anonymous comments are disabled in this journal

    default userpic

    Your reply will be screened

    Your IP address will be recorded