Сергій Кабуд ( Кий ) (xyu) wrote,
Сергій Кабуд ( Кий )

does not look good

I’ve been following the markets since the late 1960’s, and I was a professional equities and commodities analyst for Dow Jones for 9 years. I made a living as a real-time trader for another 14 years. And I have worked on a variety of market software - both CompuTrac and MetaStock.

Paulson is a Wall Street CEO, who has a 3/4 billion conflict of interest sitting in his trust fund. The only crisis around is the half billion or so he’s about to lose.

I suspect that most people would be somewhat lost if I started talking about support levels for the DJIA at about 8K in 2003, or the market making a double top, and being heading for a normal correction since this time last year, trying to build a new support level at around 10K.

What goes up, must come down. And if you try to prop the market up artificially, it’s going to cave in and fall down and smack you in the head. This bailout, which is now 850 billion dollars since it was attached to a piece of legislation that had already passed the house - is a big mistake.

There was NO indication in the market of ANY problem requiring intervention until after the “crisis” was announced. The “liquidity” problem was caused by the bailout being discussed - why should companies sell their bad paper for 20 cents on the dollar, if they could hold on to it for a few weeks, and sell it to the government for 75 cents on the dollar. That is what froze the market.

TWO BANKS FAILED. It’s an economic disaster - we must act! Really? Wow. On a black day in 1987, a little thing called the S&L crisis started. During that crisis SEVEN HUNDRED AND FORTY SEVEN Savings and Loans failed, hundreds more were merged into other companies, and ONE THOUSAND SIX HUNDRED banks failed.

The market reacted to the bailout vote - it dumped on Monday when it was expected to pass, and Bush’s “DOOM DOOM” speech at the market open didn’t help. On Tuesday the market started to rebound after the bailout vote failed the previous evening, IN SPITE OF Bush giving yet another “WE ARE ALL DOOMED” speech telling us how difficult it was going to become to buy a washer and dryer if you didn’t have good credit.

Wednesday, and the market was roller coaster - a new vote on a bailout was in play.

Friday - the market came roaring back hundreds of poiints, on the expectation that this Constitution shredding POS bailout would be defeated again. Once it passed, the market dropped until the close.

I’ve pulled out of stocks, and exchanged US Dollars for Swiss Francs. Let me just suggest that it might be prudent to sell any stock you own before the market drops several thousand points next week BECAUSE of this bailout bill. The world has just had a demonstration that our lawmakers value money over integrity, and that we have the best goverment that money can buy - if you call Pelosi-Dodd-Frank-Reid-Obama-Bush and the rest of that batch of criminals “best”.

If you think I’m full of crap, well, then you might want to at least consider buying a few slightly out of the money puts, about two months out, to cover and insure any long positions you are holding. You might break even if the market really tanks, and you can sell them back a week later, with minimal losses, but you’ll sleep better for having insured things.

My suggestion is that people run, do not walk, to their brokers and at least discuss how they can be safe if everything melts down next week. Maybe switching out of stocks to something that will be safe until the smoke clears? Do it Monday morning, it may be too late by the afternoon. I hope things go OK next week, but I’m seeing money being maneuvered into the biggest hammer I’ve ever seen assembled, and you don’t want your wallet anywhere near a wound-up-tight-as-a-spring 20 Trillion dollar, country-destroying, economic sledge hammer when it drops.

Sometime next week, somewhere - can’t tell where since this is an awfully covert operation - some really BAD BAD things are going to happen to some country’s financial markets. You REALLY don’t want to get caught by that undertow and sucked down into oblivion. Insure long positions if you can’t liquidate them at the open Monday, and BE AFRAID. As I said, I count the equivalent of nearly 20 TRILLION US dollars being assembled and set up as a very big, very leveraged, Big Freaking Hammer just looking for something to smash. This thing can swat any economy on planet earth like a mosquito - with a splat like a big juicy bug hitting your windshield as you cruise down the freeway at 90, uh, 60 miles per hour.

Be cautious with your investments between now and November 6th. Put your money in your wallet, and keep your wallet the HECK away from the stock market for at least the next couple of weeks or so if you can’t afford to lose everything you have invested - because something wicked this way comes. Be afraid, be very, very afraid.

(If you’re just SO certain everything is now going to go straight up - take a little cash out of your wallet and buy options a couple of months out that are a maybe 5% out of the money. Better to lose a little spare change playing options than lose it all buying into a crooked card game that’s being played with a rigged deck…

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